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Middle East Flashpoints

 

Middle East Flashpoint was introduced in October 2008, in an effort to provide an up-to-date analysis of current developments in the Middle East and the Islamic World.

Tuesday, 09 March 2021 11:54

Domestic and Regional Developments leading to the Geneva Deal on Libya

Written by Ozgur Kursun

libya flagThe tribal and local leaders, as the key parameters of Libya's social structure, came to the fore in the power struggle for the country. Apart from the west-east divide the preferences of the tribes and their shifting allegiances as well the role of regional powers, such as Algeria and Egypt in particular, must also be taken into account. Recent developments are not particulary promising in terms of ensuring lasting peace and tranquility in a war-torn country. All parties seem determined to maintain their positions as they are still wary of trusting each other and feel underrepresented.

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Sunday, 21 February 2021 13:45

Competitive Control and Non-State Governance in Idlib

Written by Christina Chatzitheodorou

syria hayat tahrir al shamSyria’s north-western region of Idlib remains the stronghold of the opposition forces, with the most prominent jihadist groups operating there, as well as the most committed opposition forces against Assad’s regime. As Aron Lund states, the rebel-held areas are governed by a patchwork of sharia courts, local councils, exile government departments, and direct rule by armed groups. However, instead of forming a unified opposition, those non-state actors are competing against each other for control over Idlib.

 

 

 

 

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Thursday, 10 December 2020 21:48

The current situation in Iraq

Written by Eleni Ntarvis Tampar

iraq protests Baghdad 2019This analysis aims at underlining the economic and political crisis in Iraq that led to widespread protests around the country since October 2019. The government’s inability to deliver basic services to society has created a series of protests with demands for better living conditions. The Iraqi security forces and armed militias are using extreme force to tackle the demonstrations with many protesters injured or killed. Hence, the question that presents itself is how foreign interventionism affects the country’s society and sense of security, as well as its economy.

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Monday, 07 December 2020 21:11

The Yemeni civil war: a year since the Riyadh Agreement

Written by Alexandra Nikopoulou

yemen control map 2020Almost 6 years since the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, the long-term and largely neglected conflict, is still going strong, albeit turning to several internal conflicts between local actors benefiting from the weakness of central government and the numerous divisions of societal and state structures that favor the prevalence of local authorities. Even though frontlines have not changed significantly over the last couple of years and most local actors have established their authority in certain regions, the war has not been called and conflict persists in key areas of the country. In the governorates of Marib, Taiz, Hadramawt and Al- Hudeydah, clashes persist and neither of the two main conflicting parties has consolidated its authority in these areas, despite Houthis gaining significant ground over the last year.

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Thursday, 03 December 2020 18:19

Syria’s fragile balances and the looming threat of a new vicious circle of instability

Written by Ilias Mitrousis

syria troubled assadDespite the latest ceasefire in Idlib, tensions are once again rising across Syria. In the northwest, the high mobility in Idlib indicates that renewed fighting is rather a matter of timing, while in the south and east, escalating assassination campaigns in Daraa and Deir ez-Zor generate new dangerous dynamics. In central and eastern Syria, the resurgence of ISIS cells further exposes a severe security vacuum that opens way for intensive influence competition between the Kurds and the regime. Last but not least, the unprecedented economic crisis that face the country threatens to derail even the minimum stability enjoyed in Syria at the moment.

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Monday, 02 November 2020 19:32

The Gulf and the Changing of Paths in the Middle East

Written by Christina Chatzitheodorou

israel abraham accordsRecently, Israel has improved its relations with the Gulf. This development was formalized via the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain and the silent approval of Saudi Arabia. The normalization between Israel and the Gulf is the result of a process some 20 years in the making, as 27 years have passed since Rabin, Arafat and Clinton signed the Oslo Declaration of Principles, which for the most part is now inactive. The questions that arise are how these accords can potentially affect the regional balance and whether more accords are likely to come.

 

 

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Monday, 26 October 2020 13:19

As Israel normalizes relations with the Arabsphere, can the Palestinians revive the Palestinian Question?

Written by Ilias Mitrousis

palestine abbas clock ticking for palestineIsrael’s normalizing relations with various Arab countries brought the Palestinians once again before the bitter realization that time is working against them. It appears that this realization triggered a process of reconciliation among the Palestinians. Yet, will these efforts suffice to influence the course of the Palestinian Question within a rapidly changing regional environment?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Tuesday, 14 April 2020 12:55

Israel’s Electoral Quarantine is over: Unity Government and Netanyahu’s political prowess

Written by Dimitris Papanikolaou

israel netanyahu gantzIsrael has been through 3 elections in less than a year. In the shadow of the skyrocketing COVID-19 outbreak, political stability seems to be one of the country’s main needs. Benjamin Netanyahu - despite being legally persecuted - reached a deal with Benny Gantz, for a unity government led by the first. Netanyahu’s political maneuvers will keep him at the helm of Israeli government and the deal between the two sides points out many thought-provoking aspects of the country’s politics.

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Sunday, 05 April 2020 21:15

Syria’s never-ending war(s); or why the end of the civil war does not mean peace

Written by Ilias Mitrousis

syria flag in the rubblesAs the Syrian civil war nears its end, the regime’s imminent victory against the remaining opposition forces in Idlib tends to be overshadowed by several emerging issues that threaten to trigger a new circle of instability. In the meantime, irrespective of any outcome in the north, another ‘war’ still rages and will continue to rage in the country. The one between Iran, which struggles to recover from the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, and Israel, which meticulously tries to fend off the former’s entrenchment in the country.

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Wednesday, 11 March 2020 12:17

The domestic spillover in Iran following the Qasem Soleimani affair

Written by Stavros I. Drakoularakos

iran protests roadDuring the past few weeks, it seems that the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), on January 3, 2020, should have sent Middle Eastern relations and the fragile regional equilibrium into a spiral. Nonetheless, the repercussions of the US administration’s decision have not yet been observed on a larger international scale, but rather on the domestic one.

 

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