The aim of this analysis is not to provide facts on Pakistan's current situation but rather to interpret them and consequently trace the path that Pakistan is most likely to pursue. I will argue that its major problems are violence and corruption, rather than the absence of democracy. Furthermore, by taking into account the country's socio-political realities (alternative identities and networks, perception and role of the state, a shrinking middle class), it will be examined whether events like the Iranian Green Movement, the Arab Spring, or the Palestinian Intifadas can take place in Pakistan in the near future.

On March 24, 2013, President Francois Boziz?, in power for the past decade, is overthrown by the predominantly Muslim S?l?ka militia. Their offensive begins in December 2012, and gradually loots its way into the capital, Bangui, which they seize in March 2013. The presidential palace is overtaken and Michel Djotodia, the leader of the group, proclaims himself president of the Central African Republic.

Though European and American interest in now focused in the dramatic uprising in Syria, another major country of the region, Iraq, seems to be few steps away from the abyss of an all-out sectarian strife. United States’ record in Iraq seems rather bleak. They prevented the re-creation of a strong Iraqi military, which could guarantee internal and external security and become a steam engine for state building.

Notwithstanding the political boundaries that were successfully concocted by internal clannish and private interests as well as by external hegemonies, the phenomenon of the Social Contract (Ummah), regardless of its constituents or size, still plays a most significant role in propelling hopes for better economic, political and social justice among the disbursed subjects. Such nostalgic hopes turn into apathy and frustration, depending on the prevailing events of the times. If however, the post Arab-Spring experience in Egypt or Libya or Iraq, Yemen or Syria, just to name a few, puts down firm roots over the region, then it goes without saying that a New Middle East, politically and culturally very different from the one we know today, will arise.